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Welcome to the Askari Media Digest in English and Arabic, with hand-selected news and analysis on today’s most important security topics. We appreciate your feedback and value the opportunity to work with you.
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صحيفة ذا إيكونومست – 19 تموز / يوليو 2018
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الإمارات العربية المتحدة تسعى جاهدة
للسيطرة على الموانئ في إفريقيا
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في الوقت الذي تُعتبر فيه الجهود التي تبذلها دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة لإنشاء موطئ قدم إستراتيجي لها في موانئ شرق إفريقيا بأنها من أجل الحصول على مزايا تجارية وعسكرية، يحذر المؤلفون من أن ذلك قد يؤدي إلى تفاقم التوترات في المنطقة. ويقول المدراء التنفيذيون في شركة موانئ دبي العالمية بأن إفريقيا تحتاج إلى المزيد من الموانئ – وخاصة في القرن الذي أدّى فيه الصراع إلى خنق التجارة. ولكن موانئ القرن كلها تقع بالقرب من مضيق باب المندب، والمنافسة هناك شرسة. وبالإضافة إلى ذلك، فسوف تجد دول الخليج في إفريقيا نفسها في منافسة مع الصين. ويُعتبر ميناء جبل علي بأنه الميناء الأكثر ازدحاماً خارج آسيا وهو يعمل كمركز للتجارة مع إفريقيا، ولكن الصين قد ترغب في قطع الطريق على الوسيط وذلك كما تفعل في ميناء دورالي في جيبوتي. ويعتقد الشاحنون بأنها سيطرت على دورالي كتنازل للصين، المُثقل بالديون لها. وفي هذا الشهر، فقد ساعدت الصين على فتح المرحلة الأولى من منطقة التجارة الحرة الجديدة التي تبلغ قيمتها 3.5 مليار دولار، والتي من المتوقع بأن تكون الأكبر في إفريقيا. وتقول شركة موانئ دبي العالمية التي بُنيت معظمها من قبل شركات صينية مملوكة للدولة بأن المشروع ينتهك شروط تنازلاتها وتهدد برفع قضية. وتوضح تلك التطورات بأن التنافس على النفوذ والفوائد الإستراتيجية في القرن يتعدى المنافسة مع الجيران، وسوف يتطلب وجود خطة دبلوماسية وإقتصادية شاملة لضمان القيمة التي تسعى إليها الإمارات
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The Economist | 19.07.2018
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The UAE is Scrambling to
Control Ports in Africa
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While the UAE's efforts to establish strategic footholds in east Africa's ports for commercial and military advantages, the authors warn that it also risks exacerbating tensions in the region. Executives at maritime firm DP World argue that Africa needs many more ports—especially in the Horn where conflict has stifled trade. But the Horn ports all sit near the Bab al-Mandab strait and competition is fierce. In addition, the Gulf states in Africa will find themselves in competition with China. Jebel Ali is the busiest port outside Asia and acts as a hub for trade with Africa, but China may want to cut out the middleman as it appears to be doing in Djibouti’s Doraleh port. Shippers believe it took Doraleh as a concession to China, to which it is heavily indebted.
This month, China helped open the first phase of a new $3.5bn free-trade zone, set to be the largest in Africa. Built mostly by state-owned Chinese firms, DP World says the project violates the terms of its concession and is threatening to sue. These developments demonstrate that vying for influence and strategic benefits in the horn go beyond competition with neighbors and will require a comprehensive diplomatic and economic plan to secure the value the UAE seeks.
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صحيفة ذا إيكونومست – 19 تموز / يوليو 2018
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الإمارات العربية المتحدة تسعى جاهدة
للسيطرة على الموانئ في إفريقيا
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في الوقت الذي تُعتبر فيه الجهود التي تبذلها دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة لإنشاء موطئ قدم إستراتيجي لها في موانئ شرق إفريقيا بأنها من أجل الحصول على مزايا تجارية وعسكرية، يحذر المؤلفون من أن ذلك قد يؤدي إلى تفاقم التوترات في المنطقة. ويقول المدراء التنفيذيون في شركة موانئ دبي العالمية بأن إفريقيا تحتاج إلى المزيد من الموانئ – وخاصة في القرن الذي أدّى فيه الصراع إلى خنق التجارة. ولكن موانئ القرن كلها تقع بالقرب من مضيق باب المندب، والمنافسة هناك شرسة. وبالإضافة إلى ذلك، فسوف تجد دول الخليج في إفريقيا نفسها في منافسة مع الصين. ويُعتبر ميناء جبل علي بأنه الميناء الأكثر ازدحاماً خارج آسيا وهو يعمل كمركز للتجارة مع إفريقيا، ولكن الصين قد ترغب في قطع الطريق على الوسيط وذلك كما تفعل في ميناء دورالي في جيبوتي. ويعتقد الشاحنون بأنها سيطرت على دورالي كتنازل للصين، المُثقل بالديون لها. وفي هذا الشهر، فقد ساعدت الصين على فتح المرحلة الأولى من منطقة التجارة الحرة الجديدة التي تبلغ قيمتها 3.5 مليار دولار، والتي من المتوقع بأن تكون الأكبر في إفريقيا. وتقول شركة موانئ دبي العالمية التي بُنيت معظمها من قبل شركات صينية مملوكة للدولة بأن المشروع ينتهك شروط تنازلاتها وتهدد برفع قضية. وتوضح تلك التطورات بأن التنافس على النفوذ والفوائد الإستراتيجية في القرن يتعدى المنافسة مع الجيران، وسوف يتطلب وجود خطة دبلوماسية وإقتصادية شاملة لضمان القيمة التي تسعى إليها الإمارات
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The Economist | 19.07.2018
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The UAE is Scrambling to
Control Ports in Africa
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While the UAE's efforts to establish strategic footholds in east Africa's ports for commercial and military advantages, the authors warn that it also risks exacerbating tensions in the region. Executives at maritime firm DP World argue that Africa needs many more ports—especially in the Horn where conflict has stifled trade. But the Horn ports all sit near the Bab al-Mandab strait and competition is fierce. In addition, the Gulf states in Africa will find themselves in competition with China. Jebel Ali is the busiest port outside Asia and acts as a hub for trade with Africa, but China may want to cut out the middleman as it appears to be doing in Djibouti’s Doraleh port. Shippers believe it took Doraleh as a concession to China, to which it is heavily indebted.
This month, China helped open the first phase of a new $3.5bn free-trade zone, set to be the largest in Africa. Built mostly by state-owned Chinese firms, DP World says the project violates the terms of its concession and is threatening to sue. These developments demonstrate that vying for influence and strategic benefits in the horn go beyond competition with neighbors and will require a comprehensive diplomatic and economic plan to secure the value the UAE seeks.
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United Arab Emirates – The Economist – 19.07.2018
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The UAE is Scrambling to
Control Ports in Africa
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IT SEEMED an irrational decision 20 years ago. DP World is one of the world’s largest maritime firms. From a squat office overlooking Dubai’s bustling Jebel Ali port, it directs operations in 40 countries. Most are in busy shipping hubs such as London and Rotterdam. But in the 1990s it started making surprisingly big investments in the Horn of Africa. It built a large port in Djibouti, and is now working on another in Somaliland (see map). The combined GDP of the two African entities is smaller than that of Moldova. Yet the firm sees the region as a land of opportunity.
Executives at DP World argue that Africa needs many more ports—especially in the Horn, where conflict has stifled trade. Ethiopia, populous and fast-growing, lost its coastline when Eritrea broke away in 1991. Its 105m people rely on Djibouti for 95% of their trade. Farther inland, countries such as South Sudan, Uganda and Rwanda struggle to reach markets. DP World thinks the region from Sudan to Somalia needs 10-12 ports. It has just half that. “The whole Horn of Africa is short of ports. It’s stifling,” says one executive.
The firm’s first foray was on Djibouti’s coast. When DP World won its first concessions there in the 1990s, the Emiratis were among the few investors interested in the small and poor former French colony. DP World built and operated a new container terminal, Doraleh, and helped finance roads and other infrastructure. Doraleh is now the country’s largest employer and the government’s biggest source of revenue. It runs at nearly full capacity, handling 800,000 containers a year. Much of its cargo travels along a Chinese-built railway from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital.
Djibouti’s profile rose further after the terrorist attacks on America of September 11th, 2001, when America opened a military base there. France and China also have bases; other navies patrol off its coast to deter Somali pirates. But when the Emiratis wanted to open their own naval base they were rebuffed, partly because of their close ties to Djibouti’s rival, Eritrea (the two states had a bloody border dispute in 2008). In 2015 the UAE started building a naval base in Assab, in southern Eritrea. The base has been used in the coalition war against Houthi rebels in Yemen. It would be the jumping-off point for a mooted amphibious assault on Hodeida, Yemen’s main port, now the focus of heavy fighting. The UAE also helped mediate Eritrea’s peace deal with Ethiopia signed on July 9th, ending decades of hot and cold war. If it holds, the truce could end UN sanctions and open Eritrea to investment. Assab and another port, Massawa, could be expanded.
In 2016 DP World won a 30-year concession to operate the port of Berbera in Somaliland, which declared independence in 1991 (though no foreign government recognises it). Critics said the deal would hasten the break-up of Somalia. Djibouti was upset for different reasons. With a planned capacity of 1.25m containers, Berbera would erode Djibouti’s monopoly on Ethiopian cargo. Indeed, Ethiopia acquired a 19% stake in the port earlier this year. All this could cost Djibouti hundreds of millions in annual transit fees.
It would also cement the UAE’s place in a strategic region. Uniquely among Arab states, it tries to project military power far beyond its borders. The Horn ports all sit near the Bab al-Mandab strait, a vital choke-point at the mouth of the Red Sea: 4.8m barrels of oil passed through it every day in 2016. Competition is getting fierce, though. Qatar and its ally, Turkey, are building ports in Sudan. Saudi Arabia is in talks to set up a naval base in Djibouti. All three Gulf states are trying to snap up farmland in east Africa, part of a broader effort to secure food supplies for their arid countries. Emirati-built ports could one day export crops from Emirati-owned farms
As the Gulf states move in, however, they bring their own conflicts to a troubled region. Qatar helped to end the clashes between Djibouti and Eritrea and kept peacekeepers there for almost a decade. Then came the bust-up of 2017, when four Arab states, including the UAE, imposed an embargo on Qatar. Both Djibouti and Eritrea sided with the blockading states. Qatar pulled out its troops, and Eritrea soon seized the disputed territory from Djibouti.
Gulf states could also find themselves in competition with China. The UAE hopes to be part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a scheme to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure such as roads and ports. Jebel Ali is the busiest port outside Asia, and already acts as a hub for trade with Africa. But China may want to cut out the middleman. In 2014 Djibouti tried to toss out DP World. It accused the firm of paying bribes to secure its Doraleh concession. Arbitrators in London found the claim meritless.
In February Djibouti dropped the legal niceties: it simply seized the port. The government says DP World failed to expand the port as quickly as promised. Shippers believe it took Doraleh as a sop to China, to which it is heavily indebted (see article). In July Djibouti opened the first phase of a new $3.5bn free-trade zone, set to be the largest in Africa when it is finished. Built mostly by state-owned Chinese firms, it sits next to Doraleh. DP World says the project violates the terms of its concession and is threatening to sue. The UAE helped to put Djibouti on the map. Now, ironically, it may find itself frozen out.
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Syria – AFP – 24.07.2018
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Russia Offers to Keep Iran Forces
in Syria far from Golan: Israel
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Russia has offered to keep Iranian forces in Syria away from the border with the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights but Israel wants Tehran to completely withdraw, an Israeli official said Tuesday.
Moscow made the offer -- which would see Iranian forces stay 100 kilometres (62 miles) from Syria's border with the Golan -- during talks Monday in Jerusalem between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the official said.
But Israel said the proposal did not go far enough. "We won't accept Iranian military entrenchment in Syria, not near the border, not beyond the 100-kilometre stretch, which by the way the Russians talk about and agree to," the senior official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We said there are also long-range weapons beyond that distance, and all the forces must leave Syria," the official.
The Monday meeting came after Moscow-backed Syrian government forces regained control of most of the two provinces in the country's south near the Golan Heights, through a combination of deadly bombardment and Russian-brokered surrender deals.
The advance has pushed hundreds of thousands to flee southward, with Israel enabling more than 400 rescue workers and family members to cross through its territory into Jordan on Sunday for resettlement in Western countries. Iran is Israel's arch-enemy and Netanyahu has pledged to prevent it from entrenching itself militarily in Syria. A series of air strikes that have killed Iranians in Syria have been attributed to Israel.
Both Tehran and Moscow are backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the conflict.
Israel is eager to obtain guarantees that Iranian forces and allied groups, such as Lebanon's Hezbollah, are kept away from the Golan and even beyond.
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